Chapter 11 - Adjustments and Emissions Reduction Commitments

Last updated on 15 Mar 2017 08:08 (cf. Authors)

Emission reduction targets 2010 and Germany's compliance

This section describes the 2010 emission reduction targets established by the original Gothenburg Protocol and the first NEC Directive. It transparently explains Germany's (non-)compliance and illustrates the use of adjustments. Later emission reduction targets for 2020 or 2030 are not covered here, since the assessment can only be made with 2020 data, available from 2022 onward.

NOx SOx NMVOC NH3
NATIONAL EMISSION CEILINGS
Gothenburg 1,081 550 995 550
NEC 1,051 520 995 550
INVENTORY DATA
2010 2011 2015 2010 2011 2015 2010 2011 2015 2010 2011 2015
Inventory Total 1,582.9 1,555.2 1,419.8 455.1 444.5 380.6 1,232.0 1,146.4 1,032.1 682.8 724.5 760.60
- forest fires -0.07 -0.03 -0.08 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.22 -0.09 -0.24 -0.02 -0.01 -0.02
- 1.A.3.a i - Cruise -107.7 -101.9 -115.2 -1.38 -1.30 -1.40 -1.14 -1.01 -1.06 -1.19 -1.12 -1.20
- 1.A.3.a ii - Cruise -9.41 -9.50 -8.73 -0.11 -0.11 -0.10 -0.21 -0.20 -0.19 -0.09 -0.10 -0.08
- 1.A.3.d i -131.7 -129.8 -108.3 -44.25 -43.98 -27.29 -14.35 -14.22 -10.38 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03
National Total for Reporting 1,334.0 1,313.9 1,187.5 409.3 399.1 351.8 1,216.1 1,130.9 1,020.2 681.4 723.2 759.3
EXCEEDANCES OF SET EMISSION CEILINGS
against NEC 283.0 262.9 136.5 no exceedance 221.1 135.9 25.2 131.4 173.2 209.3
against Gothenburg 253.0 232.9 106.5 no exceedance 221.1 135.9 25.2 131.4 173.2 209.3
ADJUSTMENTS
NOx SOx NMVOC NH3
2010 2011 2015 2010 2011 2015 2010 2011 2015 2010 2011 2015
National Total for Reporting 1,334.0 1,313.9 1,187.5 409.3 399.1 351.8 1,216.1 1,130.9 1,020.2 681.4 723.2 759.3
- DE-A: NOx from 1.A.3.b -151.3 -146.8 -100.9
- DE-B: NOx and NMVOC from 3.B -2.05 -2.01 -1.97 -9.49 -8.99 -9.85
- DE-C: NOx and NMVOC from 3.D -108.8 -119.2 -125.6 -191.7 -191.7 -198.6
- DE-D: NOx & NH3 from 3.I - Storage of Energy crops -0.16 -0.18 -0.16 -3.00 -3.40 -3.05
- DE-D: NOx & NH3 from Energy crops residuals used in 3.D IE in 3.D NOx Total -36.9 -46.3 -60.7
National Total for Compliance 1,071.8 1,045.7 958.9 409.3 399.1 351.8 1,014.9 930.2 811.7 641.5 673.5 695.5
REMAINING EXCEEDANCES
NOx SOx NMVOC NH3
against NEC 20.8 19.9 91.5 123.5 145.5
against Gothenburg 19.9 91.5 123.5 145.5

The table above provides a breakdown of the emission data for the years 2010, 2011 as well as 2015 and the four pollutants relevant for Gothenburg and NEC compliance (NOx, SO2, NMVOC, and NH3). Starting from the Germany's emission ceilings required by the Gothenburg protocol and the NEC directive respectively, the Inventory Total values are provided. These include emission amounts that are not considered for compliance (the so-called "Memo Items", e.g. bunkers, aviation etc.). These amounts are subtracted, resulting in the National Total officially used for reporting. These national totals are then compared to the NEC and Gothenburg ceilings and exceedance amounts are provided wherever an exceedance occurs.

In the next step, the Adjustments as defined by the CLRTAP Guidelines are applied to the national totals. All German adjustment proposal have been reviewed and accepted by independent expert teams. Finally, new national totals for compliance checking and the remaining exceedance against both the NEC directive and the Gothenburg protocol are calculated for each pollutant and year. The years 2012 to 2014 are not shown in this table due to space limitations, data from these years is consistent and does not show any further exceedances.

As a general result, it can be derived that Germany met all its reduction targets from 2011 onward, with the notable exception of ammonia.

Current situation per pollutant

For NOx, both the NEC and the Gothenburg commitments have been undercut by 2011 and Germany expects to stay in compliance due to a continuing downward trend.

Germany's SO2 emissions have been on a steep and steady decline since the 1980's. Today's numbers are significantly lower than expected when the emission ceilings were established, thus Germany does not have any problems meeting its emission ceiling for sulphur oxides.

The national total emissions of NMVOCs showed a steady downward trend until 2009. After recovery from the "crisis year" 2009 brought the emissions up again in 2010, the national totals returned to the level reached in 2009 where they remain stable since. With the majority of emissions resulting from solvent production and application which is primarily governed by product legislation, action on EU level is needed to further bring down these emissions. With the adjustment in agriculture applied, Germany is, however, currently in compliance with its commitments for this pollutant.

For NH3, emission estimates have been revised significantly over the last years. Due to various inventory changes in both the 2015 and the 2016 submissions, which include higher emission factors, total emissions went up by about 120kt. The 2016 submission additionally includes the new source “emissions from digested energy crops” for the first time, resulting in extra emissions of about 64 kt for 2015. Given these changes, compliance will only be possible with additional measures, even when taking adjustments into account.

Adjustments in detail

Please refer to the following sub-sections for details on the emission adjustments applied by Germany:

Bibliography
1. EMEP EB, 2012: EMEP Executive Body Decision 3/2012 in ECE/EB.AIR/111/Add.1 - Adjustments under the Gothenburg Protocol to emission reduction commitments or to inventories for the purposes of comparing total national emissions with them
URL: http://www.ceip.at/fileadmin/inhalte/emep/Adjustments/ECE_EB.AIR_111_Add.1__ENG_DECISION_3.pdf
2. EMEP EB, 2014: EMEP Executive Body Decision 2014/1 - Improving the guidance for adjustments under the 1999 Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and Ground-level Ozone to emission reduction commitments or to inventories for the purposes of comparing total national emissions with them
URL: http://www.ceip.at/fileadmin/inhalte/emep/Adjustments/Decision_2014_1.pdf
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