1.A.4.a ii - Commercial / Institutional: Mobile

Last updated on 25 Jan 2017 15:25 (cf. Authors)

Short description

In NFR 1.A.4.a ii - Commercial/institutional: Mobile fuel combustion activities and emissions from commercially and institutionally used mobile sources should be reported.

Within the German inventory, non-road diesel and LPG-driven (forklifters) vehicles used in the commercial and institutional sector are taken into account here.

NFR-Code Source category Method AD EF Key Category for (by1)
1.A.4.a.ii Commercial/Institutional: Mobile combustion T1, T2 NS, M CS, D, M no key category

Method

Activity data

Sector-specific diesel consumption data are included in the primary fuel-delivery data available from NEB line 67: 'Commercial, trade, services and other consumers' (AGEB, 2015) [1].

Table 1: Sources for primary fuel-deliveries data
through 1994 NEB line 79: 'Households and small consumers'
as of 1995 NEB line 67: 'Commercial, trade, services and other consumers'

Following the deduction of diesel oil inputs for military vehicles as provided in (BAFA, 2015) [2], the remaining amounts of diesel oil are apportioned onto off-road construction vehicles (NFR 1.A.2.g vii) and off-road vehicles in commercial/institutional use (1.A.4.a ii) as well as agriculture and forestry (1.A.4.c ii) based upon annual shares derived from TREMOD-MM (ifeu, 2015b) [3] (cf. NFR 1.A.4 - mobile).

Table 2: Annual contribution of NFR 1.A.4.a ii to the over-all amounts of diesel oil provided in NEB line 67
1990 1995 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
6.95% 6.56% 6.65% 7.04% 7.16% 6.95% 7.00% 6.94% 7.02% 7.00% 6.71% 6.90% 6.85% 6.75% 6.72%

As the NEB does not distinguish into specific biofuels, consumption data for biodiesel are calculated by applying Germany's official annual shares of biodiesel blended to fossil diesel oil.

In contrast, for LPG-driven forklifters, specific consumption data is modelled in TREMOD-MM. (Here, these amounts are subtracted from the over-all amount available from NEB line 67 to estimate the share of LPG used in NFR 1.A.4.a i - Commercial/Institutional: Stationary combustion.)

Table: Annual fuel consumption, in TJ
1990 1995 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Diesel Oil 7,774 6,413 6,326 6,044 5,867 5,751 5,814 5,874 6,290 6,196 6,086 6,144 6,349 6,530 6,898
Biodiesel NA NA NA 52 128 168 260 290 433 404 401 403 369 398 377
LPG 2,787 3,450 4,261 4,778 4,894 5,007 5,117 5,224 5,328 5,431 5,441 5,449 5,456 5,462 5,467
NFR TOTAL 10,561 9,863 10,587 10,874 10,889 10,925 11,190 11,388 12,051 12,032 11,928 11,997 12,175 12,391 12,743

Emission factors

The emission factors used here are of rather different quality:
Basically, for all main pollutants, carbon monoxide and particulate matter, annual IEF modelled within [3] are used, representing the sector's vehicle-fleet composition, the development of mitigation technologies and the effect of fuel-quality legislation.

In contrast, without country-specific information, regarding all heavy metals and POPs, tier1 values are applied. Here, EF for exhaust HMs and PAHs have been derived from (EMEP/EEA, 2013a and b) [4], [5].

The tier1 value apllied for PCDD/F has been derived from a study carried out by (Rentz et al., 2008) [6] for the German Federal Environment Agency.

For HCB and PCBs, no emission factors are available at the moment.

As no such specific EF are available for biofuels, the values used for diesel oil are applied to biodiesel, too.

Table 3: (I)EFs used for 2015 emission estimates
NH3 NMVOC NOx SO2 CO PM BC Pb Cd Hg As Cr Cu Ni Se Zn B[a]P B[b]F B[k]F I[…]P ∑PAH 1-4 PCDD/F HCB PCBs
[kg/TJ] [g/TJ] [mg/TJ] [g I-Teq] [mg/TJ]
Diesel1 0.172 70.32 6402 0.542 4172 502,3 36.69 1.214 0.236 0.125 0.0024 1.166 39.66 1.636 0.236 23.36 6986 1,1646 8005 1845 2,8477 1.628 NE NE
LPG 0.142 1482 1,3252 0.412 1122 0.842,3 0.139 NE 0.234 NE NE 0.204 0.814 0.234 NE 46.34 4.355 0.005 4.355 4.355 13.06 NE NE NE

1 due to lack of better information: similar EF are applied for fossil diesel oil and biodiesel
2 country-specific values from [3]
3 EF(PM2.5) also applied for PM10 and TSP (assumption: > 99% of TSP consists of PM2.5)
4 tier1 defaults from [4], chapter 1.A.3.b i-iv - Road transport: exhaust emissions: tier1 value for diesel vehicles, p. 104, Table 3-103
5 tier1 defaults from [4], chapter 1.A.3.b i-iv - Road transport: exhaust emissions: tier1 value for diesel vehicles, p. 22, Tables 3-8 & 3-9
6 tier1 defaults from [4], chapter 1.A.2.g vii, 1.A.4.a ii, b ii, c ii, 1.A.5.b i - Non-road
7 sum of tier1 default values applied for B[a]P, B[b]F, B[k]F, and I[1,2,3-c,d]P
8 tier1 values derived from [6]
9 estimated via a f-BC 0.05 as provided in [4], Chapter 1.A.2.g vii, 1.A.4.a ii, b ii, c ii, 1.A.5.b i - Non-road, note to Table 3-1: Tier 1 emission factors for off-road machinery

Discussion of emission trends

NFR 1.A.4.a ii is no key source.

Unregulated pollutants (NH3, HMs, POPs, …)

For all unregulated pollutants, emission trends directly follow the trend in fuel consumption.

Regulated pollutants

Nitrogen oxides (NOx), Sulphur dioxide (SO2)

For all regulated pollutants, emission trends follow not only the trend in fuel consumption but also reflect the impact of fuel-quality and exhaust-emission legislation.

Particulate matter (BC, PM2.5, PM10, and TSP)

Over-all PM emissions are by far dominated by emissions from diesel oil combustion with the falling trend basically following the decline in fuel consumption between 2000 and 2005.
Nonetheless, the decrease of the over-all emission trend was and still is amplified by the expanding use of particle filters especially to eliminate soot emissions.

Additional contributors such as the impact of TSP emissions from the use of leaded gasoline (until 1997) have no significant effect onto over-all emission estimates.

Here, as the EF(BC) are estimated via fractions provided in [4], black carbon emissions follow the corresponding emissions of PM2.5.

Recalculations

Activity data

For diesel oil, the contribution to over-all fuel deliveries data from NEB line 67 have been revised in TREMOD MM as follows:

Table 4: Revised contribution to diesel oil inland deliveries data from NEB line 67
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Submission 2017 0.069 0.066 0.067 0.072 0.069 0.070 0.069 0.070 0.070 0.067 0.069 0.069 0.068
Submission 2016 0.075 0.083 0.085 0.090 0.088 0.088 0.089 0.092 0.095 0.094 0.096 0.095 0.095
absolute change -0.005 -0.017 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 -0.018 -0.020 -0.022 -0.025 -0.027 -0.027 -0.026 -0.028
relative change -7% -21% -21% -20% -21% -20% -22% -24% -26% -29% -28% -28% -29%

As the amounts of biodiesel are calculated from the amounts of fossil diesel fuel via the official blending shares, NFR-specific consumption data for biodiesel have been revised according to the changes for diesel oil.

The following table gives an overview of the revised consumption data fro all three fuels.

Table 5: Revised fuel consumption data
1990 1995 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Diesel Oil
Submission 2017 7,774 6,413 6,326 6,044 5,867 5,751 5,814 5,874 6,290 6,196 6,086 6,144 6,349 6,530
Submission 2016 8,337 8,099 8,033 7,772 7,376 7,271 7,312 7,561 8,248 8,383 8,568 8,507 8,805 9,080
absolute change -563 -1,686 -1,707 -1,728 -1,509 -1,520 -1,499 -1,687 -1,958 -2,186 -2,483 -2,363 -2,455 -2,550
relative change -7% -21% -21% -22% -20% -21% -20% -22% -24% -26% -29% -28% -28% -28%
Biodiesel
Submission 2017 52 128 168 260 290 433 404 401 403 369 398
Submission 2016 67 161 212 327 374 568 547 564 558 512 549
absolute change -15 -33 -44 -67 -83 -135 -143 -164 -155 -143 -151
relative change -22% -20% -21% -20% -22% -24% -26% -29% -28% -28% -27%

Emission factors

All emission factors for main pollutants changed widely due to the routine revision of the TREMOD MM model.

Table 6: Revised TREMOD MM emission factors for diesel fuels, in kg/TJ
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
NH3
Submission 2017 0.168 0.210 0.216 0.216 0.218 0.217 0.223 0.228 0.237 0.249 0.244 0.244 0.249
Submission 2016 0.163 0.167 0.169 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.171 0.172 0.172 0.172 0.172
absolute change 0.005 0.043 0.047 0.046 0.047 0.046 0.052 0.057 0.066 0.077 0.072 0.073 0.078
relative change 3% 26% 28% 27% 27% 27% 30% 33% 38% 45% 42% 42% 45%
NMVOC
Submission 2017 263 253 219 154 142 131 122 114 107 101 92 84 77
Submission 2016 244 197 170 120 110 102 93 85 77 70 65 59 53
absolute change 19 56 50 34 32 29 29 29 30 31 27 25 24
relative change 8% 29% 29% 28% 29% 28% 32% 34% 39% 45% 43% 43% 45%
NOx
Submission 2017 1,078 1,344 1,312 1,075 1,029 971 940 903 876 855 784 731 691
Submission 2016 1,000 1,045 1,013 838 798 757 715 672 630 589 550 512 475
absolute change 78 299 299 237 231 214 225 230 246 265 234 219 216
relative change 8% 29% 29% 28% 29% 28% 32% 34% 39% 45% 43% 43% 45%
PM2.5, PM10 and TSP
Submission 2017 207 187 154 106 97 90 84 79 75 71 65 60 55
Submission 2016 192 146 119 83 76 70 64 59 54 49 46 42 38
absolute change 15 42 35 23 22 20 20 20 21 22 20 18 17
relative change 8% 29% 29% 28% 29% 28% 32% 34% 39% 45% 43% 43% 45%
**CO **
Submission 2017 895 882 805 624 592 560 538 517 500 488 462 442 430
Submission 2016 830 686 622 486 459 437 409 385 360 336 324 310 296
absolute change 65 197 183 137 133 123 129 132 140 151 138 132 134
relative change 8% 29% 29% 28% 29% 28% 32% 34% 39% 45% 43% 43% 45%

In addition to this model revision, emission factors for BC were caclulated as fraction of the corresponding EF for PM.

Table 7: Newly implemented EF(BC), in kg/TJ)
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Diesel fuels 113.9 102.3 84.8 62.1 58.1 54.4 52.1 50.1 48.5 47.3 44.6 42.0 39.4 36.6
LPG 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13

Given the broad revisions and further changes described above, all emissions data has been recalculated but cannot be displayed here in full detail.
For information on the impacts on 1990 and 2014 emission estimates, please see the pollutant specific recalculation tables following chapter 8.1 - Recalculations.

Uncertainties

Uncertainty estimates for activity data of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023: "Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland" by (ifeu & INFRAS 2009) [6]. - For detailled information, please refer to the project's final report here (German version only!)

Uncertainty estimates for emission factors were compiled during the PAREST research project. Here, the final report has not yet been published.

Planned improvements

Besides the annual routine revision of TREMOD MM, no specific improvements are planned at the moment.

FAQs

Why are similar EF applied for estimating exhaust heavy metal emissions from both fossil and biofuels?

The EF provided in [4] represent summatory values for (i) the fuel's and (ii) the lubricant's heavy-metal content as well as (iii) engine wear. Here, there might be no heavy metal contained in biofuels. But since the specific shares of (i), (ii) and (iii) cannot be separated, and since the contributions of lubricant and engine wear might be dominant, the same emission factors are applied to biodiesel and bioethanol.


Bibliography
1. AGEB, 2016: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (Hrsg.): Energiebilanz für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland; URL: http://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/7-0-Bilanzen-1990-2013.html, (Aufruf: 21.10.2015), Köln, Berlin.
2. BAFA, 2016: Bundesamt für Wirtschaft und Ausfuhrkontrolle, Amtliche Mineralöldaten für die Bundesrepublik Deutschland;
URL: http://www.bafa.de/bafa/de/energie/mineraloel_rohoel/amtliche_mineraloeldaten/index.html, (Aufruf: 21.10.2015), Eschborn.
3. ifeu, 2016b: Helms, H., Lambrecht, U., Knörr, W. , IFEU - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH: Aktualisierung des Modells TREMOD-Mobile Machinery, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Heidelberg, 2014.
4. EMEP/EEA, 2016: EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2016, Copenhagen, 2016.
5. Rentz et al., 2008: Nationaler Durchführungsplan unter dem Stockholmer Abkommen zu persistenten organischen Schadstoffen (POPs), im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, FKZ 205 67 444, UBA Texte | 01/2008, January 2008 - URL: http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/en/publikationen/nationaler-durchfuehrungsplan-unter-stockholmer
6. ifeu & INFRAS, 2009: IFEU – Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH und INFRAS Zürich: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland, FKZ 360 16 023, Heidelberg & Zürich.
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