1.A.3.b v - Gasoline Evaporation

Last updated on 30 Aug 2017 16:54 (cf. Authors)

Short description

In category 1.A.3.b v - Road Transport: Gasoline evaporation fugitive emissions from evaporation of gasoline from road vehicles are reported.

NFR-Code Name of Category Method AD EF Key Category for (by1)
1.A.3.b v Gasoline evaporation T2 NS, M CS, M NMVOC (L/T)

Method

Activity data

Specific data for gasoline evaporation from road vehicles are generated within TREMOD [2].
- The following table provides an overview of annual amounts of gasoline evaported from road vehicles in Germany.

Table 1: Annual amount of gasoline evaporated from road vehicles, in kt
1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PCs 10,923 9,694 9,171 8,108 7,638 7,332 7,102 7,067 6,957 6,889 6,573 6,654 6,710 6,477
LDVs 169 139 144 103 95 88 74 68 62 59 55 53 51 51
Mopeds 113 79 72 73 77 77 79 81 78 81 79 79 81 78
Motorcycles 78 39 93 135 141 83 92 99 106 113 118 130 139 128
TOTAL 11,283 9,951 9,480 8,419 7,952 7,580 7,348 7,315 7,204 7,142 6,825 6,916 6,981 6,735

(Implied) Emission factors

Tier3 emission factors representing the effect of mitigation technologies are derived from the TREMOD model from (ifeu, 2016a) used troughout NFR sector 1.A.3.b [1]

Table 2: Emission factors used for 2015 emissions estimates, in kg/t
Passenger cars Light duty vehicles Mopeds Motorcycles
conventional with mitigation conventional with mitigation conventional conventional with mitigation
23.3 0.41 16.3 0.25 3.38 12.3 10.6
Table 3: Overview of implied emission factors per vehcile type, in kg/t
1990 1993 1994 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PCs 0.0092 0.0065 0.0098 0.0086 0.0031 0.0012 0.0010 0.0010 0.0008 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007
LDVs 0.0145 0.0120 0.0202 0.0184 0.0103 0.0066 0.0063 0.0057 0.0044 0.0039 0.0034 0.0031 0.0028 0.0027 0.0026 0.0025
Mopeds 0.0033 0.0029 0.0032 0.0032 0.0033 0.0033 0.0032 0.0034 0.0034 0.0035 0.0034 0.0034 0.0034 0.0034 0.0034 0.0034
Motorcycles 0.0088 0.0156 0.0247 0.0231 0.0135 0.0106 0.0104 0.0148 0.0132 0.0125 0.0119 0.0117 0.0112 0.0108 0.0106 0.0111

NOTE: IEFs for 1993 and 1994 are undelined to show the erronous development. Here, underlying EFs for 1990 to 1993 have not been revised correctly.

Discussion of emission trends

NFR 1.A.3.b v - Gasoline evaporation is key category for emissions of NMVOC regarding the emissions' level and declining trend.

Non-Methane Volatile Organic Compounds - NMVOC

(fugitive emissions only; no NMVOC emissions from fuel combustion included)

Since its maximum level of over 11 kilotonnes in 1990, the amount of evaporated gasoline is decreasing - and so are the related NMVOC emissions. The amounts of evaporated gasoline are connected directly with those of gasoline consumed. Here, the decrease becomes sharper from 2000 onwards following a growing switch from gasoline to diesel oil especially in passenger cars. Here, the annual amounts of NMVOC emissions from evaporation not only depend directly on the amount of evaporated gasoline but also on the number of vehicles equipped with mitigation technologies. Thus, the decrease is sharpest straight after 1990 and since then slowing down.

NOTE: Due to defectively revised emission factors, the emission estimates provided in the NFR tables are incorrect until 1993. Here, the EFs for 1990 to 1993 have not been adapted to the revised values for all years as of 1994. As it is not possible to provide an artificially corretected chart for the emission estimates, the chart from submission 2014 is included to at least display the correct trend in emissions. - However, the described erronous EFs will be corrected with the next TREMOD routine revision and the NEC and CLRTAP submissions 2018.

Recalculations

Recalculations were carried out due to a TREMOD routine revision and as a follow-up of the ongoing review process impelemented under the LRTAP Convention.

Activity data was revised for 1994 (undelined values) and all years from 2011 depending on the vehicle type.
Here, for 1994 alone, an error within the underlying TREMOD model has been as a follow-up from the 2015 Stage 2 review.

Table 4: Revised annual amounts of evaporated gasoline 2011-2014, in kt
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TOTAL
Submission 2017 7.204 7.142 6.825 6.916 6.981
Submission 2016 7.204 7.145 6.831 6.924 6.990
absolute change 0 -3 -6 -8 -9
relative change 0.00% -0.04% -0.09% -0.12% -0.13%
Passenger Cars
Submission 2017 6.957 6.889 6.573 6.654 6.710
Submission 2016 6.957 6.893 6.582 6.667 6.731
absolute change 0 -5 -9 -12 -21
relative change 0.00% -0.07% -0.13% -0.19% -0.32%
Light Duty Vehicles
Submission 2017 62 59 55 53 51
Submission 2016 62 59 54 52 50
absolute change 0 0 1 1 1
relative change 0.00% 0.65% 1.27% 1.92% 2.59%
Mopeds
Submission 2017 78 81 79 79 81
Submission 2016 78 81 79 79 81
absolute change 0 0 0 0 0
relative change 0.00% 0.00% 0.01% 0.04% 0.00%
Motorcycles
Submission 2017 106 113 118 130 139
Submission 2016 106 112 116 127 128
absolute change 0 1 2 3 11
relative change 0.00% 0.90% 1.69% 2.40% 8.71%

In addition, tier3 NMVOC emission factors were revised for recent years.

As a result, NMVOC emissions from gasoline evaporation have been re-estimated as follows:

Table 5: Re-estimated NMVOC emissions 2011-2014, in kt
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TOTAL
Submission 2017 6.62 6.58 6.32 6.41 6.54
Submission 2016 6.62 6.58 6.32 6.40 6.51
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.03
relative change 0.00% 0.02% 0.05% 0.09% 0.50%
Passenger Cars
Submission 2017 4.88 4.81 4.58 4.60 4.67
Submission 2016 4.88 4.81 4.58 4.60 4.67
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
relative change 0.00% 0.00% -0.01% 0.01% -0.02%
Light Duty Vehicles
Submission 2017 0.21 0.18 0.15 0.14 0.13
Submission 2016 0.21 0.18 0.15 0.14 0.13
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
relative change 0.00% 0.15% 0.29% 0.46% 0.57%
Mopeds
Submission 2017 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
Submission 2016 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
relative change 0.00% 0.01% 0.02% 0.05% -0.05%
Motorcycles
Submission 2017 1.27 1.32 1.33 1.40 1.46
Submission 2016 1.27 1.32 1.32 1.39 1.43
absolute change 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03
relative change 0.00% 0.11% 0.22% 0.34% 2.30%

For information on the impacts on 1990 and 2014 emission estimates, please see the pollutant specific recalculation tables following chapter 8.1 - Recalculations.

Uncertainties

Uncertainty estimates for activity data of mobile sources derive from research project FKZ 360 16 023: "Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland" by (ifeu & INFRAS, 2009) [2]. - For detailled information, please refer to the project's final report here (German version only!)

Uncertainty estimates for emission factors for all 1.A.3.b sub-categories were compiled during the PAREST research project. Here, the final report has not yet been published.

Planned improvements

As mentioned above, the correction of erroneous emission factors (for 1990 to 1993) will be included as part of the TREMOD routine revision for submission 2017.

FAQs


Bibliography
1. ifeu, 2016a: Knörr, W. et al., IFEU - Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH: Fortschreibung des Daten- und Rechenmodells: Energieverbrauch und Schadstoffemissionen des motorisierten Verkehrs in Deutschland 1960-2030, sowie TREMOD 6.5, im Auftrag des Umweltbundesamtes, Berlin, 2016.
2. ifeu & INFRAS, 2009: IFEU – Institut für Energie- und Umweltforschung Heidelberg gGmbH und INFRAS Zürich: Ermittlung der Unsicherheiten der mit den Modellen TREMOD und TREMOD-MM berechneten Luftschadstoffemissionen des landgebundenen Verkehrs in Deutschland, FKZ 360 16 023, Heidelberg & Zürich.
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